Arkansas Pine Bluff

Conference:	SWAC
Expected RPI:	307.0
Current RPI:	307
Expected SOS:	343
Current SOS:	343
Current Record:	14-21
Expected Record:	14-21
Current Conf Record:	14-7
Expected Conf Record:	14-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-13
Current OOC Record:	0-14
Expected OOC Record:	0-14
Expected OOC RPI:	346
Expected OOC SOS:	209

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-21	307.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas Pine Bluff.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Hawaii (213.0)	BW	A	82-70	L	0%
11-12	Troy (194.0)	SB	N	81-57	L	0%
11-13	North Dakota (221.0)	BSky	N	71-80	L	0%
11-18	SMU (113.0)	Amer	A	72-37	L	0%
11-20	Air Force (253.0)	MWC	A	57-47	L	0%
11-22	Texas St. (243.0)	SB	N	71-54	L	0%
11-24	Pacific (190.0)	WCC	A	78-69	L	0%
11-25	Canisius (124.0)	MAAC	N	58-81	L	0%
12-2	Santa Clara (264.0)	WCC	A	72-57	L	0%
12-9	Oregon St. (137.0)	P12	A	85-58	L	0%
12-13	Fresno St. (103.0)	MWC	A	78-52	L	0%
12-16	Weber St. (162.0)	BSky	A	96-74	L	0%
12-19	Cincinnati (6.0)	Amer	A	77-49	L	0%
12-22	Tennessee Martin (306.0)	OVC	A	74-68	L	0%
1-1	Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)	SWAC	A	71-80	W	100%
1-6	Alabama A&M (350.0)	SWAC	A	62-69	W	100%
1-8	Alabama St. (333.0)	SWAC	A	68-94	W	100%
1-13	Southern (315.0)	SWAC	H	78-76	W	100%
1-15	Alcorn St. (348.0)	SWAC	H	71-59	W	100%
1-20	Prairie View A&M (247.0)	SWAC	A	66-72	W	100%
1-22	Texas Southern (222.0)	SWAC	A	72-74	W	100%
1-27	Grambling St. (249.0)	SWAC	H	68-69	L	0%
1-29	Jackson St. (330.0)	SWAC	H	60-58	W	100%
2-3	Alabama A&M (350.0)	SWAC	H	80-62	W	100%
2-5	Alabama St. (333.0)	SWAC	H	59-65	L	0%
2-10	Southern (315.0)	SWAC	A	70-62	L	0%
2-12	Alcorn St. (348.0)	SWAC	A	84-52	L	0%
2-17	Prairie View A&M (247.0)	SWAC	H	71-76	L	0%
2-19	Texas Southern (222.0)	SWAC	H	62-61	W	100%
2-24	Grambling St. (249.0)	SWAC	A	66-75	W	100%
2-26	Jackson St. (330.0)	SWAC	A	51-48	L	0%
3-3	Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)	SWAC	H	94-57	W	100%
3-6	Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)	SWAC	H	77-73	W	100%
3-9	Southern (315.0)	SWAC	N	71-65	W	100%
3-10	Texas Southern (222.0)	SWAC	N	69-84	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas Pine Bluff's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Arkansas Pine Bluff's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Arkansas Pine Bluff.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	26.49	26.49	44.44	44.44	-2.94	-2.94
Texas Southern	SWAC	5.21	5.21	45.16	45.16	-0.50	-0.50
Southern	SWAC	5.18	5.18	42.86	42.86	-0.74	-0.74
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	5.11	5.11	13.79	13.79	-3.70	-3.70
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	3.87	3.87	45.16	45.16	-0.37	-0.37
Alabama St.	SWAC	3.81	3.81	24.14	24.14	-1.97	-1.97
Jackson St.	SWAC	3.79	3.79	32.14	32.14	-1.35	-1.35
Alcorn St.	SWAC	3.76	3.76	23.08	23.08	-2.02	-2.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	3.73	3.73	10.34	10.34	-2.96	-2.96
Grambling St.	SWAC	3.72	3.72	53.57	53.57	0.27	0.27
Pacific	WCC	1.55	1.55	40.00	40.00	-0.31	-0.31
Air Force	MWC	1.54	1.54	32.14	32.14	-0.55	-0.55
Cincinnati	Amer	1.54	1.54	87.88	87.88	1.17	1.17
North Dakota	BSky	1.53	1.53	31.03	31.03	-0.58	-0.58
Texas St.	SB	1.52	1.52	40.00	40.00	-0.30	-0.30
Hawaii	BW	1.52	1.52	51.85	51.85	0.06	0.06
Fresno St.	MWC	1.50	1.50	62.07	62.07	0.36	0.36
Troy	SB	1.50	1.50	43.33	43.33	-0.20	-0.20
Weber St.	BSky	1.50	1.50	59.26	59.26	0.28	0.28
Canisius	MAAC	1.50	1.50	64.52	64.52	0.44	0.44
Tennessee Martin	OVC	1.50	1.50	25.00	25.00	-0.75	-0.75
SMU	Amer	1.49	1.49	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	1.47	1.47	32.14	32.14	-0.53	-0.53
Oregon St.	P12	1.43	1.43	48.39	48.39	-0.05	-0.05
UNLV	MWC	0.25	0.25	60.61	60.61	0.05	0.05
BYU	WCC	0.25	0.25	70.59	70.59	0.10	0.10
Oregon	P12	0.22	0.22	64.71	64.71	0.06	0.06
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.21	0.21	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.20	0.20	68.75	68.75	0.08	0.08
Wyoming	MWC	0.20	0.20	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
Utah St.	MWC	0.19	0.19	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.18	0.18	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.18	0.18	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.18	0.18	88.24	88.24	0.14	0.14
Iowa	B10	0.16	0.16	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.16	0.16	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
UCF	Amer	0.15	0.15	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Houston	Amer	0.15	0.15	78.79	78.79	0.09	0.09
Pepperdine	WCC	0.15	0.15	16.13	16.13	-0.10	-0.10
Nevada	MWC	0.15	0.15	79.41	79.41	0.09	0.09
New Mexico	MWC	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.14	0.14	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.12	0.12	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.12	0.12	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Montana St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.12	0.12	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Colorado St.	MWC	0.12	0.12	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Long Beach St.	BW	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.12	0.12	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.12	0.12	80.65	80.65	0.07	0.07
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.11	0.11	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.11	0.11	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
USC	P12	0.11	0.11	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Samford	SC	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
East Carolina	Amer	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Toledo	MAC	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Washington St.	P12	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.10	0.10	13.33	13.33	-0.07	-0.07
Portland St.	BSky	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.10	0.10	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Idaho St.	BSky	0.10	0.10	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho	BSky	0.10	0.10	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
San Jose St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	10.34	10.34	-0.08	-0.08
Southern Utah	BSky	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
UC Davis	BW	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Montana	BSky	0.10	0.10	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
Portland	WCC	0.10	0.10	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.10	0.10	84.85	84.85	0.07	0.07
San Diego	WCC	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.09	0.09	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
Illinois	B10	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Akron	MAC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	Amer	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
TCU	B12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Memphis	Amer	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
LSU	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.07	0.07	14.29	14.29	-0.05	-0.05
Creighton	BE	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Utah Valley	WAC	0.07	0.07	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.07	0.07	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Duke	ACC	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.07	0.07	24.24	24.24	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.07	0.07	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
Marist	MAAC	0.07	0.07	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.07	0.07	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Washington	P12	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
UCLA	P12	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
South Florida	Amer	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Temple	Amer	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Oakland	Horz	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Syracuse	ACC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	82.76	82.76	0.03	0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.05	0.05	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Mercer	SC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Monmouth	MAAC	0.04	0.04	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.04	0.04	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.04	0.04	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.04	0.04	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.04	0.04	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.04	0.04	83.33	83.33	0.03	0.03
Texas A&M	SEC	0.04	0.04	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Army	Pat	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Denver	Sum	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	A10	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.02	0.02	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.02	0.02	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.02	0.02	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Albany	AE	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.02	0.02	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	CAA	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	8.00	8.00	-0.02	-0.02
UMBC	AE	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	15.62	15.62	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	BE	0.02	0.02	84.85	84.85	0.01	0.01